Last night, we found out the East’s 1-8 matchup. Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers will play host to Russell Westbrook and the Washington Wizards, starting Sunday at 1:00 p.m. Perhaps it should be Bradley Beal and the Wizards, but Westbrook has the star power, and the well-documented, extensive beef with Embiid. This is not a feud timeline, you can find that elsewhere.
The 76ers are led by MVP finalist Embiid and Defensive Player of the Year finalist Ben Simmons. Tobias Harris is a strong candidate for best third option in the entire association. He’s a stocky combination forward that stands at 6’8”, and has averaged almost 20 points per game on rarely-paralleled efficiency over the past three years. This season: 19.5 pts 6.8 reb 3.5 ast on 51.2/39.4/89.2 - and no one brings him up as much as they should. That’s a single bad game from 50/40/90, and he plays high-end defense.
The story of the 76ers is their defense, and by extension their size. Simmons is the most position-versatile defender in the NBA this year, Embiid is a top-5 rim protector at minimum in the midst of the best season of his career, Harris is a monstrous wing with post presence, Danny Green is a seasoned guard defender, Shake Milton can keep anyone in front of him and led the league in DRTG earlier this year, and Matisse Thybulle is a perimeter game-wrecker. And they’re led by Doc Rivers, who will be coaching his 30th playoff series (180 games and counting), so he’s seen it all. TL;DR, the Wizards’ offense is in a lot of trouble.
The two best players on the Wiz, Beal and Westbrook, are both ball-handling guards. That means perimeter defense is how to combat them. Since the 76ers have the best personnel in the NBA to do this, it means that success for Washington lies in less-beaten paths.
Despite the fact that Bradley Beal tied the franchise’s record for points (60) against Philadelphia earlier this season, we can’t presume earth-scorching production from the league’s second-leading scorer - especially when considering the injury to his hamstring. Since hurting his hamstring, we have seen a lot more of Beal the secondary playmaker, as opposed to Beal the tunnel vision scorer. Before Russ got here, he was the entire engine of the offense, instead of just the number one bucket option, and it got him 6.1 assists per game.
Beal tried to score at his regular level while also catering to his hamstring by getting others involved against Boston, pressing himself while being at less than 100%. He was unable to. Against Indiana, he realized what was best to take away from the Celtics loss, and he was masterful. He lifted his laser focus on the basket. When you’re going full speed, it’s just you and the cup. Being at 80-85% forces him to take that one extra deep breath, and play more methodically. His head was up just a hair more. It got him surer looks, and it exploited the defensive focus on him to the benefit of his teammates.
He took 6 less shots than his season average, and put up an efficient 25 (his last basket was with 4:07 in the third, a 38-point pace in a non-blowout). It took the playmaking load off of Westbrook, who laid a FAT egg against Boston, and he got back to doing his thing with 15 assists. The three-time assist champ has put up double-digit dimes in 44 of his last 52 games, and has not gone back-to-back games under 10 in that entire stretch. When you combine one of those “on” games to this from Beal? You get huge stuff from the players that aren’t star-level dependable. Look at how the role players shot against Indy:
Daniel Gafford 6-8
Rui Hachimura 6-8
Raul Neto 5-8
Ish Smith 4-7
Davis Bertans 3-7
Robin Lopez 4-5
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28-43 (65.1%) for 75 points
There is virtually zero garbage time in there, too, because the last six minutes were all deeper bench guys. The team needs to prioritize this, even if the success won’t happen to this crazy extent against a team as good as Philly.
The Wizards’ playmaking seems strong because Russ is world-class, and Ish Smith is a fun backup. But every productive NBA lineup has three things: multiple ball handlers, some shooting, and a secondary playmaker. The Zards’ favorite lineup of Westbrook-Neto-Beal-Hachimura-Center is scarce on the last two. It can’t be against the 76ers.
The Wizards offense is sneaky worse than last year. They have a 110.7 offensive rating, vs a 111.1 without the bubble in ‘19-20. 17th vs 13th in the league. They’re shooting almost 2% worse from three than they did last year, and have fallen from 18th in attempts to 29th. Their shots at the rim have dipped as well. They lead the league in mid-range shots. Adding Westbrook and losing almost no one, the O should have improved. Instead, it mostly just changed shapes. The ceiling on a given night is higher, and ceiling is what you want in the playoffs, but they’re getting less out of the surrounding pieces than they did.
To win games against Philly, it goes without saying that Beal and Westbrook need to be on their typical levels. So that’s a postulate. The offense is going to rely on production from Rui Hachimura + one more of Davis Bertans, Raul Neto, Len/Lopez/Gafford. 15 points from two of those non-stars is an easy - and loose - benchmark that the team will need to take home dubs.
Russ taking 20-25 shots is not better than him taking 15. 20-25 means he took more jumpers, because he can’t successfully get to the rim with that volume against this good of a defense. It also means that he didn’t create as many shots for other players. A created look from a top 10 floor general in history is a better shot than the average Westbrook field goal attempt. Period.
If there are takeaways from the team’s late-season success, it’s those. I mentioned that the Wizards were scarce on auxiliary playmaking, but they don’t have to be. Like we talked about with Beal, we have seen that he can facilitate plenty. With No. 4 taking that job off his hands, he’s been on scoring mode all season. Beal needs to find that balance between being a world-class scoring threat himself, and using that ability to the advantage of his teammates, because now the team’s needs of him offensively have changed. Gameplan number one with Russ is that he’s going to try and make everybody eat. If Beal also pulls up with a serving spoon, it gives the Philly defense many more mouths to shut.
Two stars can’t get enough done by themselves, no matter how dependable. Neither member of the DC backcourt is LeBron James or Anthony Davis. Conversely and luckily, they have the playmaking chops to get themselves help, should they choose to play that way. If Beal averages 45 or Russ averages 35 in this series, they probably stood no chance. If Rui averages 20 and Bertans 16, they probably gave Philly hell.
(Image credit: Toni L. Sandys/The Washington Post)
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