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THE SUPER BOWL FAVORITES
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-0) | 2nd last week (+1)
Offense: 6th, Defense: 6th, Special Teams: 17th
Last week: beat Ravens 28-24
This week: at Cowboys (-9.5), Sunday 4:25 Eastern
Their clash with the Ravens lived up to all the hype. Big plays, defenses standing up, physicality, fourth downs, a two-minute drill with it all on the line. We have been truly lucky to get these two great franchises in the same division. The Steelers have beaten the Titans and the Ravens on the road in back-to-back weeks, teams that had just one loss combined.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-1) | 1st last week (-1)
Offense: 3rd, Defense: 3rd, Special Teams: 1st
Last week: beat Jets 35-9
This week: home vs Panthers (-11), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
They did exactly what we expected with the Jets. Holding Sam Darnold’s squad to single-digit points and dropping 35. They did not lose their top spot so much as the Steelers earned it. Nothing wrong with this team. Top 3 in offense and in defense. 1st in special teams to boot. Jeesh.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) | 3th last week (+1)
Offense: 4th, Defense: 7th, Special Teams: 26th
Last week: beat Giants 25-23
This week: home vs Saints (-4.5), Sunday 8:20 Eastern
The Buccaneers are about to add a top-five wide receiver of all-time (Antonio Brown) to a corps of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, and Rob Gronkowski. And the offense can run the ball. And the defense is top seven. And they’re super well-coached. Continuity is the only question for TB. Can all of this win 3 or 4 playoff games in its first year so assembled?
4. Baltimore Ravens (5-2) | 3rd last week (-1)
Offense: 8th, Defense: 2nd, Special Teams: 6th
Last week: lost to Steelers 28-42
This week: at Colts (-3), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
It’s tough to knock them down too far, and I hate to feed into narratives, but you have to trust Tompa Bay more than Baltimore right now. That’s not an indictment of Lamar Jackson at all. Tom Brady is the best quarterback of all-time and Lamar is 23 years old. This team still falls only one spot, because there’s no shame in a final possession loss to the best team in the NFL. But the Ravens were coming out of the bye and at home. They had a chance to say, “We remember last season, and we didn’t go anywhere.” Sneaky huge game against the also 5-2 Colts this week.
THE SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS
5. Seattle Seahawks (6-1) | 7th last week (+2)
Offense: 1st, Defense: 24th, Special Teams: 13th
Last week: beat 49ers 37-27
This week: at Bills (-3), 1:00 Eastern
They throttled the 49ers, don’t let the final score fool you. This offense is not going to be stopped. They dropped 37 on a Super Bowl defense without any running backs. Hopefully the addition of Carlos Dunlap helps a team with one of the worst pass rushes in the league, but they need more than just a situational rusher. Jimmy G and mostly Nick Mullens diced the team for 322 yards despite having no running game to speak of. Hopefully they’re buyers at the trade deadline, because this team is close.
6. Tennessee Titans (5-2) | 5th last week (-1)
Offense: 4th, Defense: 18th, Special Teams: 31st
Last week: lost to Bengals 31-20
This week: home vs Bears (-6), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Painful stuff at the end of that game. They had a chance to score and then play defense after a Jayon Brown interception deep in Cincinnati territory, but an unrelated penalty kept the ball with the Bengals. Shame too, because they had timeouts and the two-minute warning. I want to make those excuses for the Titans, but they just came out flat. They should beat the Bengals, but instead the heartbreaker against Pittsburgh a week ago lingered. They added 2018 All-Pro corner/returner Desmond King II from the Chargers at the trade deadline. The defense has not been the same as last year, and the loss of Logan Ryan in free agency has hurt. King is a top-tier nickel corner that could be better than Ryan was. That should help.
7. Green Bay Packers (5-2) | 6th last week (-1)
Offense: 4th, Defense: 20th, Special Teams: 8th
Last week: lost to Vikings 28-22
This week: at 49ers (-2.5), Thursday 8:20 Eastern
The Packers just can’t stop Dalvin Cook. Their defense plays underneath its talent every week. It’s infuriating. Fans are calling for coordinator Mike Pettine's firing and they should be. Short week on the road and the team could potentially be missing Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, and Jamaal Williams. Can Aaron Rodgers do it all with his arm? He couldn’t against the Vikings.
CAN WIN A PLAYOFF GAME
8. Indianapolis Colts (5-2) | 9th last week (+1)
Offense: 10th, Defense: 5th, Special Teams: 2nd
Last week: Beat Lions 41-21
This week: home vs Ravens (+3), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Another impressive game for Philip Rivers. He tossed three touchdowns, didn’t turn it over, and what looked like it would be a dogfight early turned into a blowout. The Colts hit their rhythm and it was over. The defense added yet another touchdown, this one a pick-six courtesy of Kenny Moore II. A massive test against Baltimore this week. I’d be crazy to predict a win, but the Colts are legitimately really good. They could have a run like last season’s Titans. I see that Ravens game either being within in a score, or the Colts lay a total egg against a mad Ravens team. Let’s hope for the former.
9. Arizona Cardinals (5-2) | 10th last week (+1)
Offense: 9th, Defense: 9th, Special Teams: 18th
Last week: BYE
This week: home vs Dolphins (-4.5), Sunday 4:25 Eastern
They’re coming off the bye week, and get a hot Dolphins team that is playing the type of football we didn’t expect from them until next season.
Last week’s thoughts:
They followed up the raging high of their Cowboys national TV beatdown with a comeback thriller in overtime against an undefeated division rival. What a sentence, and what a surprise team. Two top ten units for a team that was 16th in offense and 28th in defense last season. They’ve earned their bye week.
10. Buffalo Bills (6-2) | 11th last week (+1)
Offense: 19th, Defense: 15th, Special Teams: 11th
Last week: beat Patriots 24-21
This week: home vs Seahawks (+3), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Ugly win against the Patriots. The last four words are all that matters. The Bills don’t embarrass teams too often. The defense found a rhythm against New England’s college offense. Let’s hope it stays that way. There’s no such thing as a bad 6-2 team, but they’re not a heavyweight. This home Seattle game (10 a.m. Seattle local time) will tell us a lot.
11. New Orleans Saints (5-2) | 12th last week (+1)
Offense: 7th, Defense: 23rd, Special Teams: 3rd
Last week: beat Bears 26-23 in OT
This week: at Buccaneers (+4.5), Sunday 8:20 Eastern
They won a game that tested them. Cold, road, great defense, their first outdoor game of the season, and they took care of all of those things. They’re not the Super Bowl contender of the past three seasons, but I’ve been wrong before. 5-2 amid the Michael Thomas saga is not bad at all. Kwon Alexander was a pickup. That's about all I can say. If the most injured team in the NFL (49ers) can let him go, that says everything to me. Hopefully he actually suits up for New Orleans.
12. Los Angeles Rams (5-3) | 8th last week (-4)
Offense: 21st, Defense: 4th, Special Teams: 28th
Last week: lost to Dolphins 28-17
This week: BYE
What a dud. Jared Goff, do you suck? The answer is probably yes, but he proves us wrong enough to earn that eye-popping contract (4 years, $134 million with $110M guaranteed if you forgot). Rams turnovers/special teams gave Miami 21 of their 28 points. So you can call it a game that should have went differently - the defense wrapped up an inferior matchup - but the offense still did the dreadful things it did. Woof.
WILD CARD MATERIAL
13. Miami Dolphins (4-3) | 17th last week (+4)
Offense: 11th, Defense: 1st, Special Teams: 32nd
Last week: beat Rams 28-17
This week: at Cardinals (+4.5), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
What a first start for Tua. Coming out of the bye made the transition to him from Ryan Fitzpatrick easier, but the Rams’ defense is a tall first game order. Only 93 yards passing, but the defense gave him a touchdown, special teams gave him another, and then a fumble recovery started a drive at the Rams’ 1. Coordinator Josh Boyer’s defense has been incredible all season. They're the best in the NFL right now! What was originally planned as a redshirt year for Tua has a legitimate shot at 9 (dare I say more?) wins.
14. Cleveland Browns (5-3) | 15th last week (+1)
Offense: 16th, Defense: 27th, Special Teams: 20th
Last week: lost to Raiders 16-6
This week: BYE
Horrific game. The windiest NFL game I can remember watching. A kick going wide right could have missed left. The Browns should have been all about this because they lead the NFL in rushing yards per game, but they got out-smashmouthed by Jon Gruden and Josh Jacobs. First game without Odell Beckham, and a couple ticky tack touchdown calls both went Las Vegas’ way. Regroup in the bye week. This didn’t expose that much.
15. Chicago Bears (5-3) | 14th last week (-1)
Offense: 28th, Defense: 8th, Special Teams: 27th
Last week: lost to Saints 26-23 in OT
This week: at Titans (+6), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Nick Foles and the offense did a tiny bit. An impressive drive with a big 4th- and 3rd-down play to march and kick the overtime-forcing field goal. Earlier, they left a field goal on the board because the wind was too strong and ended up getting no points after failing to convert the fourth down. So they were close. The Saints are a good not great team, and this was their first outdoor game of the season. Chicago should have had it. Their offense will either hit a stride or they will miss the playoffs after starting 4-0 and 5-1.
16. Las Vegas Raiders (4-3) | 16th last week (+0)
Offense: 12th, Defense: 25th, Special Teams: 22nd
Last week: beat Browns 16-6
This week: at Chargers (+1.5), Sunday 4:05 Eastern
Strong performance in every way imaginable. I got into the weirdness of the game in the Browns section. I can’t boost the Raiders way up in the same way I can’t tank the Browns, but this win means a lot. 4-3 and 3-4 is a huge difference. They have several winnable games left. This team is trending up; they want to play run-heavy and give Derek Carr safer opportunities to succeed. The defense isn’t suddenly great, but holding any team of NFL players to 6 points may be something worth noting.
TEAMS THAT CAN FIGURE A THING OUT STILL
17. San Francisco 49ers (4-4) | 13th last week (-4)
Offense: 15th, Defense: 10th, Special Teams: 14th
Last week: lost to Seahawks 37-27
This week: home vs Packers (+2.5), Thursday 8:20 Eastern
Jimmy Garoppolo is going to miss extended time with an ankle injury, and could go on IR. George Kittle is out for eight weeks with a broken bone in his foot. Nick Mullens got a lot of good stats when the game was out of reach, and that helped the score look a lot more respectable than it was. The schedule is an absolute gauntlet the rest of the way. I hate sticking a fork in any 4-4 at Week 9 reigning conference champion teams that are coached by Kyle Shanahan, but take them out of the oven, because they’re finished.
18. Los Angeles Chargers (2-5) | 19th last week (+1)
Offense: 17th, Defense: 19th, Special Teams: 30th
Last week: beat Jaguars 39-29
This week: home vs Raiders (-1.5), Sunday 4:05 Eastern
They have blown a 16+ point lead in four straight games. They lost three of those. They could be 5-2 right now. At least Justin Herbert has a couple more seasons left in the tank.
19. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1) | 22nd last week (+3)
Offense: 23rd, Defense: 16th, Special Teams: 21st
Last week: beat Cowboys 23-9
This week: BYE
20. New England Patriots (2-5) | 18th last week (-2)
Offense: 29th, Defense: 12th, Special Teams: 19th
Last week: lost to Bills 24-21
This week: at Jets (-7), Monday 8:15 Eastern
21. Carolina Panthers (3-4) | 20th last week (-1)
Offense: 25th, Defense: 13th, Special Teams: 29th
Last week: lost to Falcons 25-17
This week: at Chiefs (+11), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
22. Detroit Lions (3-4) | 21st last week (-1)
Offense: 18th, Defense: 26th, Special Teams: 7th
Last week: lost to Colts 41-21
This week: at Vikings (+4), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
23. Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1) | 26th last week (+3)
Offense: 20th, Defense: 21st, Special Teams: 5th
Last week: beat Titans 31-20
This week: BYE
24. Denver Broncos (3-4) | 24th last week (+0)
Offense: 27th, Defense: 17th, Special Teams: 12th
Last week: beat Chargers 31-30
This week: at Falcons (+4), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
25. Minnesota Vikings (2-5) | 25th last week (+0)
Offense: 13th, Defense: 29th, Special Teams: 23rd
Last week: beat Packers 28-22
This week: home vs Lions (-4), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
BOTTOM FEEDERS
26. Houston Texans (1-6) | 23rd last week (-3)
Offense: 22nd, Defense: 30th, Special Teams: 4th
Last week: BYE
This week: at Jaguars (-6.5), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
27. Atlanta Falcons (2-6) | 27th last week (+0)
Offense: 14th, Defense: 22nd, Special Teams: 16th
Last week: beat Panthers 25-17
This week: home vs Broncos (-4), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
28. Washington Football Team (2-5) | 29th last week (+1)
Offense: 30th, Defense: 11th, Special Teams: 24th
Last week: BYE
This week: home vs Giants (-3.5), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
29. New York Football Giants (1-7) | 28th last week (-1)
Offense: 31st, Defense: 14th, Special Teams: 25th
Last week: lost to Buccaneers 25-23
This week: at Washington (+3.5), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) | 30th last week (+0)
Offense: 26th, Defense: 31st, Special Teams: 9th
Last week: BYE
This week: home vs Texans (+6.5), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
31. Dallas Cowboys (2-6) | 31st last week (+0)
Offense: 24th, Defense: 32nd, Special Teams: 15th
Last week: lost to Eagles 23-9
This week: home vs Steelers (9.5), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
T.L.T. (TREVOR LAWRENCE TERRITORY)
32. New York Jets (0-8) | 32nd last week (+0)
Offense: 32nd, Defense: 24th, Special Teams: 10th
Last week: lost to Chiefs 35-9
This week: home vs Patriots (+7), Monday 8:15 Eastern
Cover photo by Doug Murray/AP
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