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Last week can be found here.
Tier I. The Super Bowl Favorites
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0) | 1st last week (+0)
Offense: 5th, Defense: 3rd, Special Teams: 11th
Last week: beat Bengals 36-10
This week: at Jaguars (-9.5), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Consider the Bengals bungled. Big Ben has been around enough to not dilly dally around with inferior teams. We saw that when they drubbed a Browns team that had won 4 straight by 31. Their eyes are set on January and February because they should be, but securing the bye is an indispensable stepping stone to the Lombardi. Everyone in the building seems to know that.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) | 2nd last week (+0)
Offense: 2nd, Defense: 6th, Special Teams: 21st
Last week: BYE
This week: at Raiders (-7), Sunday 8:20 Eastern
Bye this week. Last week's thoughts:
The Panthers made it ulcer-inducingly close, but KC squeaked out with a win. Andy Reid is maybe the best bye week coach ever. He will lay into his team for their performance at Arrowhead on Sunday. It'll be terrifying if they come out even more on their game.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) | 4th last week (+1)
Offense: 6th, Defense: 8th, Special Teams: 16th
Last week: beat Panthers 46-23
This week: home vs Rams (-3), MONDAY 8:15 Eastern
Tom Brady doesn't lose twice in a row. He is fueled by anger and the corpses of AFC East opponents. The NFC South has been a little bit different, but the extra anger from a 38-3 home slaughter made up the difference. The defense isn't as good as it seemed a couple weeks ago, but there's still six games to find their speed.
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-3) | 3rd last week (-1)
Offense: 13th, Defense: 1st, Special Teams: 1st
Last week: lost to Patriots 23-17
This week: home vs Titans (-6.5), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
The Patriots are a total mystery. But you have to beat a 3-5 team on the road. They should not be able to get momentum on you. If they lose to the Titans, which I am not predicting, their season may start to come apart. They cannot afford to waste this defense when their quarterback is the MVP.
II. The Super Bowl Contenders
5. Green Bay Packers (7-2) | 6th last week (+1)
Offense: 3rd, Defense: 15th, Special Teams: 13th
Last week: beat Jaguars 24-20
This week: at Colts (-2), Sunday 4:25 Eastern
Every good team plays a close game for no reason. We saw Pittsburgh go down to the last possession against the Cowboys 4th starting quarterback of the season last week. Hopefully they had their eyes on the Colts, and that extra focus helps them win a sneaky huge matchup.
6. New Orleans Saints (7-2) | 8th last week (+2)
Offense: 4th, Defense: 13th, Special Teams: 5th
Last week: beat 49ers 27-13
This week: home vs Falcons, Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Drew Brees' rib injury will sideline him a couple weeks. If Jameis Winston played the entire game, they would still beat the 49ers, and will probably beat the Falcons. That's the perk of having the best backup QB in the NFL. We'll see if this minor shake-up hurts their stride, but they were rounding into deep playoff run form.
7. Tennessee Titans (6-3) | 5th last week (-2)
Offense: 10th, Defense: 17th, Special Teams: 30th
Last week: lost to Colts 34-17
This week: at Ravens (+6.5), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Hard to make out what this team is. The Colts are really good, but it's a hot take that I think Indy is better than this team. The schedule has been tough and COVID-19 has impacted this team a good amount. In a perfect world, consistency and structure find this team and it hits its ceiling. We will see.
III. Can win a playoff game
8. Los Angeles Rams (6-3) | 12th last week (+4)
Offense: 19th, Defense: 2nd, Special Teams: 31st
Last week: beat Seahawks 23-16
This week: at Buccaneers (+3), MONDAY 8:15 Eastern
This defense is serious. They held the Seahawks offense to its lowest output of the season by double-digits. If the offense somehow carries that momentum to a win over Tompa Bay, they're legit Super Bowl contenders.
9. Indianapolis Colts (6-3) | 10th last week (+1)
Offense: 15th, Defense: 4th, Special Teams: 6th
Last week: beat Titans 34-17
This week: home vs Packers (+2), Sunday 4:25 Eastern
Wow!! I've been hammering the Colts all season. I thought they'd make the AFC Championship. This is not a victory lap, or even vindication really, but this team can play. That was a hell of a road win. If they can compound it with a win over Green Bay, I am getting rowdy on here.
10. Buffalo Bills (7-3) | 9th last week (-1)
Offense: 11th, Defense: 18th, Special Teams: 8th
Last week: lost to Cardinals 32-30
This week: BYE
I refuse to penalize them for a random miracle happening. It's good that wasn't a playoff game. Get the bad luck out of the way in Week 10 to a non-conference opponent. Luckily for them, they weren't catching KC or Pittsburgh, and the Titans also lost. They'll be neck-and-neck with the Ravens for the 4th seed, but they will be okay.
11. Seattle Seahawks (6-3) | 7th last week (-4)
Offense: 1st, Defense: 28th, Special Teams: 4th
Last week: lost to Rams 23-16
This week: home vs Cardinals (-5.5), THURSDAY 8:20 Eastern
5-0 to 6-3 is honestly not that bad. 6-3 is still super good, and that's after a 1-3 stretch that included 3 of their 4 hardest games. The schedule is smooth sailing after Thursday, save for their home rematch against the Rams. They can and need to fix themselves back up against the cupcakes. The offense isn't Super Bowl good with this bad of a defense, and 16 points shatters their points low of the season, which had been 27.
12. Miami Dolphins (6-3) | 11th last week (-1)
Offense: 9th, Defense: 5th, Special Teams: 2nd
Last week: beat Chargers 29-21
This week: at Broncos (-1), Sunday 4:05 Eastern
I've been all over Miami since they were 2-3, and even I get surprised the more they win. Tua is gonna forget he's a rookie. Next three games: Broncos, Jets, Bengals. After that they get the Chiefs. If they're 9-3 when that happens (I know, I know, chiiill), that's gonna be the game of the lefty's life.
IV. Wild Card material
13. Arizona Cardinals (6-3) | 13th last week (+0)
Offense: 7th, Defense: 9th, Special Teams: 23rd
Last week: beat Bills 32-30
This week: at Seahawks (+5.5), THURSDAY 8:20 Eastern
Incredible electricity. It's a tough line between "hey, they got the W" and "they essentially lost the game but then hit on a random Hail Mary." They're a fine team, but the Bills were better and they should have lost despite having home-field advantage.
14. Cleveland Browns (6-3) | 14th last week (+0)
Offense: 18th, Defense: 21st, Special Teams: 29th
Last week: beat Texans 10-7
This week: home vs Eagles (-2), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Wild weather led them to a slugfest against the Texans, and the best running back room in the NFL took care of business. Something is up with the city of Cleveland. Their last game, also at home, gave us this:
"Last week’s thoughts:
Horrific game. The windiest NFL game I can remember watching. A kick going wide right could have missed left. The Browns should have been all about this because they lead the NFL in rushing yards per game, but they got out-smashmouthed by Jon Gruden and Josh Jacobs. First game without Odell Beckham, and a couple ticky tack touchdown calls both went Las Vegas’ way. Regroup in the bye week. This didn’t expose that much."
15. Las Vegas Raiders (6-3) | 15th last week (+0)
Offense: 8th, Defense: 19th, Special Teams: 17th
Last week: beat Broncos 37-12
This week: home vs Chiefs (+7), Sunday 8:20 Eastern
I did not expect them to decimate the Broncos. That's really impressive and really crucial, because they probably won't beat the Chiefs twice. 6-3 with a manageable schedule and an ever-improving defense.
16. New England Patriots (4-5) | 21st last week (+5)
Offense: 27th, Defense: 11th, Special Teams: 7th
Last week: beat Ravens 23-17
This week: at Texans (+2.5), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Two straight and all of a sudden they're breathing. What a Bill Belichick win against the reigning MVP and reigning overall #1 seed.
17. Minnesota Vikings (4-5) | 19th last week (+2)
Offense: 12th, Defense: 20th, Special Teams: 28th
Last week: beat Bears 19-13
This week: home vs Cowboys (-9.5), Sunday 4:25 Eastern
Started 1-5. Now they're 4-5. I thought they'd be in the NFC North running. This weird-ass division is wide open for second place, all three non-Green Bay teams within half a game. They've found their identity as a running team with a physical defense.
18. Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1) | 17th last week (-1)
Offense: 24th, Defense: 16th, Special Teams: 20th
Last week: lost to Giants 24-17
This week: at Browns (+2), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
The Giants are now right on their tail. The NFC East's only hope was a Hail Mary, and unfortunately it was not to DeAndre Hopkins. The only reason they're in this tier is because they're a playoff team.
V. Teams that can figure a thing out still
19. Carolina Panthers (3-7) | 18th last week (-1)
Offense: 21st, Defense: 22nd, Special Teams: 18th
Last week: lost to Buccaneers 46-23
This week: home vs Lions (-3), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
This is a tough team, but they just need more talent. Head coach Matt Rhule has stuck better than I would have expected, being a college football phenom jumping to the much harder NFL. We'll see what kind of roster he can build.
20. Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1) | 20th last week (+0)
Offense: 22nd, Defense: 24th, Special Teams: 10th
Last week: lost to Steelers 36-10
This week: at Washington (-1), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Steelers did what the Steelers do when the Bengals play the Steelers. Joe Burrow is still a current and future star. Happens.
21. Detroit Lions (4-5) | 23rd last week (+2)
Offense: 16th, Defense: 29th, Special Teams: 15th
Last week: beat Washington 30-27
This week: at Panthers (+3), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Hey hey hey, Matt Stafford. Needed a 59-yard Matt Prater field goal as time expired to finish off a 24-3 lead against the Football Team. All that sentence tells me is that they won. Great chance to hit .500 this week.
22. Los Angeles Chargers (2-7) | 22nd last week (+0)
Offense: 17th, Defense: 22nd, Special Teams: 32nd
Last week: lost to Dolphins 29-21
This week: home vs Jets (-10), Sunday 4:05 Eastern
Late-game drama isn't even their middle name, it's their title, first, middle, and last. The only teams to not lose a game by more than one possession? The undefeated Steelers and the 2-7 Los Angeles Chargers.
23. Chicago Bears (5-5) | 16th last week (-7)
Offense: 30th, Defense: 7th, Special Teams: 22nd
Last week: lost to Vikings 19-13
This week: BYE
This team is not good. 4-0 and 5-1 turned into 5-5. They're out of the playoff picture and it doesn't look like they'll make their way back in. Quarterback is still the most important position.
24. Denver Broncos (3-6) | 24th last week (+0)
Offense: 28th, Defense: 27th, Special Teams: 26th
Last week: lost to Raiders 37-12
This week: home vs Dolphins (+1), Sunday 4:05 Eastern
The game was super close heading into the half, and a Drew Lock pick at the goal line (to Jeff Heath!!) was the only thing that stopped them from a halftime lead. This team is confounding and directionless week-to-week.
25. San Francisco 49ers (4-6) | 25th last week (-8)
Offense: 20th, Defense: 10th, Special Teams: 12th
Last week: lost to Saints 27-13
This week: BYE
No shame in losing really any game at this point. Jameis Winston and the Saints beat SF like they should have. Get ready and healthy for 2021.
26. Houston Texans (2-7) | 26th last week (+0)
Offense: 25th, Defense: 26th, Special Teams: 14th
Last week: lost to Browns 10-7
This week: home vs Patriots (-2.5), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Awful Cleveland weather game. 73 year old interim head coach Romeo Crennel has been rumored as the front office's choice to assume the role full-time. We are baffled as to why. I thought Bill O'Brien was the one making all the bad decisions.
27. Atlanta Falcons (3-6) | 27th last week (+0)
Offense: 14th, Defense: 25th, Special Teams: 19th
Last week: BYE
This week: at Saints (+7), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Bye week. Last week's thoughts:
Good at offense, as always. Not much to speak of. We know what they are.
VI. Bottom feeders (the NFC East)
28. New York Football Giants (3-7) | 28th last week (+1)
Offense: 31st, Defense: 12th, Special Teams: 3rd
Last week: beat Eagles 24-17
This week: BYE
Last week's blurb was "Daniel Jones is 5-16 in his NFL career. He's 4-0 against Washington and 1-16 against everyone else. The 1 win was his first career start." Now he has doubled his non-Washington victories, and NYG is close to hosting a playoff game. If they prove they can beat someone else, they'll fly up a tier.
29. Washington Football Team (2-7) | 29th last week (-1)
Offense: 29th, Defense: 14th, Special Teams: 24th
Last week: lost to Lions 30-27
This week: home vs Bengals (+1), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Alex Smith posted his career high in yards in his first start since his traumatic, life-threatening injury in November 2018. He has passed for 300 yards in back-to-back games for the first time in his career. What doesn't kill you... right? Too bad this team sucks.
30. Dallas Cowboys (2-7) | 30th last week (+1)
Offense: 23rd, Defense: 32nd, Special Teams: 9th
Last week: BYE
This week: at Vikings (+9.5), Sunday 4:25 Eastern
Bye week. Last week's thoughts:
Garrett Gilbert is miles better than Ben DiNucci. Pay Dak.
VII. Trevor Lawrence Territory
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) | 31st last week (-1)
Offense: 26th, Defense: 31st, Special Teams: 25th
Last week: lost to Packers 24-20
This week: home vs Steelers (+9.5), Sunday 1:00 Eastern
Jake Luton has played them into one possession losses against the Texans and Packers in back-to-back weeks. They were bad with Minshew; their franchise quarterback or even quarterback of the future is not on the roster.
32. New York Jets (0-9) | 32nd last week (+0)
Offense: 32nd, Defense: 30th, Special Teams: 27th
Last week: BYE
This week: at Chargers (+10), Sunday 4:05 Eastern
Bye week. Last week's thoughts:
Hey, they played a close game. Joe Flacco is staving off an involuntary retirement for one more year.
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