Paul George isn’t going anywhere. Neither is Kawhi.
We should never have expected the Clippers to win a championship this season. As soon as the two stars joined forces on July 10, 2019, I think you could have penciled them in as the 2021 champs. Their roster was stronger than the Lakers to start the season and would end up would filling out better too. with the midseason additions of Marcus Morris, Reggie Jackson, and Joakim Noah. The Lakers’ fit better. LeBron had already been there a season giving him an opportunity to establish how he runs things (spoiler: it’s the way champions do) and to develop an superstar-friendly ecosystem for Anthony Davis to co-inhabit.
When Kawhi won the title in his first season in Toronto, it was because he was joining an already well-constructed team. It is much easier to add a single piece to a nucleus (even one as big as your best player) the way the Raptors did, than it is to basically start on the fly, the way the Clippers did. KD won right away in Golden State; LeBron didn’t in Miami or Cleveland. Anthony Davis may be about to in Los Angeles, and Jimmy Butler is surpassing all expectations in Miami.
It’s important to note that the Clippers roster is better. Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell would both be the third-best player on the Lakers, meaning the Clips have 4 of the city’s top 6 players. Even after that, Ivica Zubac has a word with Kyle Kuzma.
Still, the Clippers roster makes much less sense.
It starts at the very top. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George fit astronomically worse than LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They don't *not* fit, but it isn't as intuitive. The Lakers landed a match made in basketball heaven in its first season. The pick and roll is the oldest play in basketball history, and LeBron and AD are as talented as any duo to ever run it. Kawhi and PG play basically the same position, one that excludes point skills. Kawhi’s career-high in assists before this season: 3.5. George’s: 4.1. Anthony Davis averaged more assists than Kawhi last year.
Kawhi upped that to 4.9 this season, partially because he was doing literally everything for the third of the season that George missed. 4.9 is a horribly low mark for your primary creator. Of the 9 players scoring as much, or with as high of usage as Kawhi this year, he posted the least assists. Giannis Antetokounmpo was the only other player to even average under 6.1 assists in that group. This season saw Kawhi’s career-high in usage, meaning he’s new to this role and should get better. But right now, it’s the biggest hole in his game and it compounds the biggest hole in the Clippers roster.
Lou Williams was the Clippers leading assist man at 5.6. This was his career-high too, because he had to do it, and because every other Clipper was even worse. He turns 34 next month, has never been a point guard, and is troublesome late in games because of his exploitability on defense. Not to mention his contract expires next year.
As a team, the Clippers were 13th out of 16 in the playoffs in assists per game, ahead of three teams that combined to play 15 total playoff games. The Clippers were 22nd in the regular season. The past seven NBA champions have finished 13th, 1st, 1st, 13th, 1st, 1st, and 7th in assists. The 2003 Spurs are the last team to win the championship finishing as low as 22nd in assists. Those Spurs also improved on their assist totals in the playoffs, whereas the Clippers got even worse, losing 2.5 dimes a game once the postseason started.
The stats hold up with assist percentage, too, if you don’t care for volume stats.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are not good enough isolation players to go win massive games without facilitation. The whole point of assists is that you’re helping (assisting) make the basket easier. Tough shots don’t win you 16 playoff games. An average shooter being wide open is a better shot than the best shooters taking heavily contested looks.
The salary cap is expected to be $115 million next season, and the Clippers salaries add up to $115.6 million, and $110.6 million if JaMychal Green opts out of his deal. Those numbers are with Marcus Morris’ $15M and 6th Man of the Year Montrezl Harrell’s $8M coming off the books. They can go over the cap to re-sign those two and pay the luxury tax, but neither one of them plays anything close to point guard. Suffice it to say, free agency is likely not that viable an option.
However, a team that is capped out can still sign players for the minimum salary to fill its roster spots.
Possible ring-chasing veterans that could sign for the minimum:
Shabazz Napier:
Probably the best option here, as he’s shown a thing or two in his career, put up good numbers for the Wizards in 29 games post-deadline pickup, and is only 29 years old, so there shouldn’t be any type of decline. Is comfortable playing off-ball.
DJ Augustin:
Has the most experience by far, and has played in 38 playoff games including an Eastern Conference Finals. He’ll be 33 next season, and isn’t coming off the strongest year. Still, his assist:turnover ratio was better than 3:1, which is great.
Brandon Knight:
Should be a last resort. Can’t be much worse than Reggie Jackson was.
Emmanuel Mudiay:
In a word? Vexing. Not a sure enough thing to go with as your day one starter, but the 2015 7th overall pick could earn the starting role resoundingly if things click. It’s just as likely, if not more, that he proves to be end of the bench material, and they’re hurting just as bad as this season. Mudiay’s still just 24 - 25 by next season’s start - so his free agency is a real question mark. Does some team want to give him two years and see if they can set him up just right? Does Mudiay want that? Minutes for a team that’ll win at least one playoff series could intrigue him as the way to get his career on track. A positive performance for a Finals contender would land him in a great spot next offseason.
Trading for a facilitator will prove tougher, because the Clippers gave basically all their draft picks to Oklahoma City for Paul George, and their only players worth anything in trades are Ivica Zubac and Landry Shamet. Zubac likely would be untradeable if Montrezl Harrell walks in free agency and is already their only positive defensive big. Shamet’s value on the market is hard to gauge. Shooting guard Terrance Mann could be a sweetener to push a deal over the edge, but not much more.
Players they could trade for:
Derrick Rose, Detroit Pistons
After reviving his career in Minnesota, the 2011 MVP signed in Detroit and put up even better numbers. He’s received 6th Man of the Year votes in each of the past two seasons, while taking good care of the ball and shooting efficiently. He has all the experience you could ask for. There’s no question he’d welcome a chance to win a ring, and the Clippers can likely mask his defensive deficiencies. There are still questions about if he’ll struggle without the ball in his hands, how much his lack of shooting hurts, and whether he can thrive in a primarily facilitating role.
Tomas Satoransky, Chicago Bulls
A truly pass-first point guard. The 6’7” Czech Republic native can do it all on offense, and would have no problem deferring to the Clippers veteran scorers. He uses his size well on O, is adequate on defense, and can stroke the three-ball. His mixed first year in Chicago makes him an unknown in terms of tradeability. New head coach Billy Donovan has an affinity for versatile guards, but he also didn’t sign Sato, and may want to do things his own way.
Ish Smith, Washington Basketball Team
Another pass-first vet, Ish has a ton of experience, and is very comfortable with the player he is. Perfect passive option next to stars who are gonna go get theirs. His shooting comes and goes, but his point guard skills are present and consistent as can be.
Cory Joseph, Sacramento Kings
Super-efficient all-around point guard. The best assist:turnover ratio on this list. Can score some, but only when you ask him to. Has a penchant for big, timely plays, which made him a fan favorite on some damn good teams in Toronto. His salary is large, $12.6M each of the next two years, but not being guaranteed in the second year makes him effectively a big expiring.
Jalen Brunson, Dallas Mavericks
Prototype of a modern all-around point guard. A 24 year old entering his third season because he went to Villanova. Very heady. Doesn’t try to take things over the top and understands his place in the grand scheme of a whole roster. Young enough that we definitely have not seen his best basketball yet. Biggest drawback is his lack of experience. He could thrive or crack under the sudden pressure of the highest stakes playoffs and the Los Angeles lights. Coming off a season-ending shoulder injury. It would be gutsy to put all your chips in this pile, but he could really blossom.
Delon Wright, Dallas Mavericks
A young 28 years old in terms of NBA mileage. Came into the league at 23 and has never featured in anything more than a minor role. The bevy of ball handlers in Dallas has continued to make that so. Averaged about 30 minutes for Memphis at the end of 2018-19, and showed legit good starter potential. Put up three triple-doubles in the final four games of the season. Exhibited ridiculous ball security and had 6+ assists in 8 of his 11 starts. Still, the lack of big-time opportunity makes him a relative uncertainty.
Image courtesy of Jeff Haynes, Getty Images
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