Last week was the debut of Occupy Ball Street (OBS), where we looked at six teams to buy and sell on. Since things don't change too much in seven days, alternating weeks are going to be focused on individual players. So today is a second debut: OBS - Players Edition
BUYING:
Gordon Hayward’s worth
The 4 years, $120 million deal that Gordon Hayward signed this offseason was the laughingstock of free agency. It was wrong at the time, it's wrong now, and Hayward is showing exactly why every game. The former Celtic is posting a line of 24/5/4 on 51/43/86. The points and all three shooting figures are career-highs, as are his 58 eFG and 62 TS%. His 2.2 turnovers are lower than the figures from his three previous highest usage seasons. With full health, he’s been the player Boston thought they were signing: the logical continuation of the Western Conference All-Star in 2016-17. Charlotte is a horrible team, so it’s easy to call his numbers hollow, but that has nothing to do with him. He’s their best player every night, and will bring their underrated core along nicely. At only 30 years old, with a game that was never athleticism-dependent, his deal should never look bad. Don’t expect him to get much better than this given his mileage in the injury department, but this is who he is. Buy buy buy.
SELLING:
Trae Young’s slump
Ice Trae is putting up 26/4/9 right now and he’s cold in the bad way. The Hawks are 9-9 and almost all of their offseason additions are flopping. Admittedly, his 47/58 eFG/TS splits are below his ability, but they are still tremendous in a vacuum. He’s only been “bad” because of the relativity of that term; Young has set the bar so high already. That 11-point disparity in his eFG vs TS% might be the largest in the NBA. He’s been bad from the field, but leads the NBA in free throw attempts while hitting 88% of them. It’s going to be terrifying when Atlanta gets to full strength and Trae gets substantially better. His assists are down 5%, but his turnovers are down 17%. Despite having limited resources, he’s third in assist percentage too. If you play this good when you’re playing bad, you’re guaranteed to snap out of it. Sell anyone selling the Hawks because of this man alone.
BUYING:
Jerami Grant as a first option
He’s really good. He finishes incredibly well and he keeps defenses honest with his consistency from deep. Hats off to Dwane Casey; despite not having much of a handle, Grant constantly is in positions to succeed. He’s the far and away usage leader on his team. He has a +1.8 net rating in 36.2 minutes, on a team that’s a -3.0 as a whole. To be that bad in those 11.8 minutes a game is horrific. They’re 4-14. Grant is the only part of the team that’s a certain bright spot, and he’s star-luminous. 91% of his points are coming from the paint, three, or the free throw line. He’s virtually doubled his career high in 3PA and maintaining the clip he was shooting at the past two seasons. His 2P% has dipped a good amount, which is to be expected playing against starters and playing as a main option. But since it contradicts a large precedent of volume, he’ll probably improve that and become even better by the end of the season. He improves the Pistons’ defensive rating more than their offensive rating, too. Buy harder than GameStop.
SELLING:
CJ McCollum’s scoring
More than half of his shots are coming from three: 55%, compared to a previous most of 37.8%. Less than 10% of his shots are coming at the rim, and he’s shooting more mid-range shots than shots within 10 feet of the basket. He’s a great shooter, and mid-range success isn’t new to him, but no one shoots like this. CJ is just hot right now, and unfortunately that heat was curtailed by a minor fracture in his left foot. He was due for a regression anyway. This injury is minor, and will not affect him longterm, but don’t expect him to suddenly have turned into Steph Curry. However, his career-highs in assists and assist percentage seem to be for real, and he is getting better looks. CJ the guard-skilled has made him improve, not CJ the Olympic jump shooter. He and Dame will not remain teammates that are top 10 in scoring.
BUYING:
Malcolm Brogdon’s everything
The scoring numbers have shot up. In part because of the absence of Victor Oladipo/Caris LeVert and TJ Warren. But don’t expect them to go down once we see the latter two returns. Brogdon has proven he can do this. On five more shot attempts than last season’s career-high, Brogdon is shooting better from everywhere. His assists have stayed steady (7.1 to 7.2) but his turnovers have actually gone down (2.4 to 2.1). Finishing more possessions has come naturally, and the turnover care means he isn’t trying to do too much. These are hittable shots, so he will continue to knock them down. As his offensively-gifted teammates come back, he will become even more efficient. He’s got the 40 and the 90; if he wants to go pass-first, the 50-40-90 club could be welcoming The President. All of this is on top of great intelligence and defense, by the way.
ADD TO CART:
Myles Turner
Turner has been enigmatic all season. If he ends up being worthy of buying, you can say you heard it here first. If he ends up a sell, you were right to be a skeptic.
You tell me what you glean from these things:
He is only 24 years old in his sixth season, really hasn't improved since his second year.
He leads the NBA in blocks with 4.2. That’s 1.5(!) better than his career-high, which also led the NBA.
He's averaging a career high in fouls.
He’s averaging career highs in three-point attempts and points in the paint.
His free throw and three-point percentages are both below his career marks.
His eFG and TS% are notable career-bests anyway.
His offensive, defensive, and therefore net, ratings are career-highs, but he is on the best team he's ever played for.
Only 30% of his minutes are without Domantas Sabonis, which is music to any Pacers fans’ ears. The frontcourt that had ample warranted questions is fitting really well right now.
Without Sabonis: per 36s of 21 pts 10 reb 2.2 ast 5.1 blk on virtually the same efficiencies. His net rating is 14.7. His most common teammates when Sabonis is off are Justin Holiday and Aaron Holiday, meaning he is helping to dominate on legit bench units. 149 minutes is a small but not insignificant sample size. If he is for real, this is the proof. All those numbers are up from his without-Sabonis minutes last season. The 5.1 blocks doubles last year’s 2.6, though, which does scream imminent regression.
I lean buy because he's young, and I'm an optimist. Even players who plateau this hard I give every chance when they're athletic, defend, and don't need scoring to contribute. Hell, I'm still buying Aaron Gordon.
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