BUYING:
Sexland and the Cavs
I wrote this before even watching them beat the Brooklyn Nets in a double-overtime thriller. Without Darius Garland, Collin Sexton dropped 42-5-5 on Kyrie's head, while wearing his jersey (Cavaliers #2) and his shoes (Kyrie 7s) on the night the Cavaliers paid tribute to Irving helping them win a title. All in the first game Kyrie, Kevin Durant, and James Harden got to play together. So yes, the Cavs are for real.
They are bursting at the seams with talent, were disrespected all offseason, the entire first month of the season, and will continue to be disrespected. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff has brought this group along well. Collin Sexton will get a rookie max extension when he’s eligible. Darius Garland has the tools to be the point guard of the future. Jarrett Allen was the coup of the young trade season. Isaac Okoro has been a mixed bag so far, but was the star of the preseason and a top 5 prospect. That’s four positions locked down, with just enough experience to start scratching the surface of their potential. Their bench is STRONG, with Larry Nance, Taurean Prince, Cedi Osman, and Damyean Dotson. Sharpshooter Dylan Windler will be back from injury soon. JaVale McGee/Andre Drummond are the two best backup bigs out there, and one of them could bring something in once they’re traded. As could the imminent departure of Kevin Porter, Jr. Kevin Love should be back soon as well, or whatever they trade him for will arrive. So yeah: rising talent, awesome depth, hunger, and additional help on the way. They’ll continue trending upward. At this point, they should be a playoff team, and they’re so young that missing wouldn’t even be a disappointment. What a time to listen to Man on the Moon III.
SELLING:
The Atlanta Hawks
The microcosm of name recognition not being tantamount to production. To be fair, Danilo Gallinari and his glass bones have played just 28 minutes all season, but even the additions of Bogdan Bogdanovic, Rajon Rondo, and Kris Dunn haven’t improved this team much from last year’s offering.
Last season, their offensive rating with Trae Young on the bench was 95.7. This season, that mark is 95.2. Those are 16 and 18.1 point drops from when Trae is on the court. The worst offense in the NBA is a 102.6. The average is 110.1. Young can’t play every minute, and they can’t do jack without him. While John Collins, Bogdanovic, Kevin Huerter, and healthy Gallinari are all very good scorers, there is no shot creation outside of Young, so those guys’ skills are rendered neutral. This issue will not be fixed with health; the remedy is outside of their current roster.
BUYING:
Bradley Beal's team
3-8 is a pretty tough time to buy any team, let alone one coached by Scott Brooks. Or, is it the easiest, because investing is basically a pennystock at this point? The picture is further muddied by the fact that the Washington Basketball Team hasn't played since January 11, and can’t return to action until January 24 at the earliest. But when they were playing, they were the victims of some brutal variance. They beat the Nets on the road with Kyrie, KD, Caris LeVert, and Jarrett Allen all fully participating. They handed the Suns, who had the second-best record in the NBA, what is still their only loss by more than 5 points all season: walloping them by 21 and leading by 30+. They gave the 76ers two close games, Boston one, and a rare fully-active Heat team one. The 'Zards net rating is 17th, directly above Portland and Golden State, the West’s 6th and 5th seeds. Their record is 28th. This massively belies their performance. Bradley Beal’s 35-5-5 averages are straight out of 2K on 12 minute quarters, and the rest of their talent just has so much promise. It's all been fuddled by the coach though, so don't forget to tweet! #firescottbrooks #arrestscottbrooks
SELLING:
The Thunder, while buying Mark Daigneault
Their record is too much better than what they have in the building. Coaching changes exponentially in the playoffs against the same opponent, but it wins you a lot of regular season games too. And head coach Mark Daigneault has been remarkable for any coach, let alone one who’s just 35 and is in his first head coaching job at any level! Seriously, how is he getting ZERO love? This team is scraping the paint off their ceiling at 6-7. They're 28th in net rating. That’s coaching: eeking out results in winnable games, but it isn’t sustainable given their talent deficit. Still, OKC's future is eclipse-bright. They already have six prospects that look like they can play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Bazley, Lu Dort, Aleksej Pokusevski, Theo Maledon, and Isaiah Roby. They also have Admiral Schofield, who was the first pick in the G League draft, Kenrich Williams, Ty Jerome, and TJ Leaf.
BUYING:
Zach LaVine
Calling the Bulls good would be premature, but they look like a professional basketball team for the first time since Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler were their marquee players. Coach Billy Donovan, who should’ve been the Coach of the Year with Oklahoma City last season, seems to be doing it to ‘em again with a young roster. I was LaVine’s harshest critic, so now I can recognize and gladly eat the error of my ways (or recognize that he is different this season, but the ends are the same). I seriously thought he sucked, just was a below-average basketball player. He’s putting up career-highs everywhere, in both volume and efficiency stats. If he ticks his rebounds up by 0.2, he’ll be putting up 27-5-5 on 50/39/82 shooting. Every single one of the 23 players to ever average 27-5-5 is a Hall of Famer. So who cares if he sucks at defense?? The Bulls are on pace to go 31-41, which is respectable, and are trending way up with a lot of longterm talent. I know there are no moral victories, but they took the Lakers and the Clippers to single-possession losses in back-to-back games in LA. That’s usually the mark of real progress, hanging tight with and scaring the big dogs for 48 minutes.
SELLING:
The Toronto Raptors
I said before the season when I picked Toronto to finish 7th in the East that there were three huge obstacles out of their control this season: 1. They were bound to regress no matter what after over-performing last season, 2. that regression would get compounded by how much worse the roster got this offseason, 3. the motivation well running dry/regression of their hunger. They made it exactly as far as Kawhi did last season: 7 games into the second round. Losing Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol hurts their big-dependent offense and defense, and has made it easier to contain Pascal Siakam. Couple that with Kyle Lowry’s march against Father Time, and worse depth, and I really find it hard to expect them to turn it around that much. Still, 5-9 is only 2 games back of 6th in the East, so the path (and 58 more games) is there for them.
Comments